Indian Stock Market Outlook

For the last two weeks I have been getting ample of emails on the outlook of Indian markets. Due to busy schedule I will not be able to for sometime reply most of the emails. I would like to use this post in answering most common market and stock questions posted by our subscribers.

1) What is the outlook of Indian markets after a deep crash last week?. Can the markets go down even further?

Last week saw market swinging down by around 4000 points, thanks to the end of week recovery.

We had cautioned our investors on several occasion to take a conservative call on the markets Click Here and to book partial profits.

Despite the recent sharp correction, Indian equities have delivered relatively good performance over a three months period compared to it's Asian and Global peers.

The strong performance of Indian markets compared to the Asian peers can be attributed to the money inflow from Domestic Institutions of around USD 1.5 Billion as against the FII outflow of USD 3.5 billion dollars.

As such with the global economy outlook, the chances of US entering to recession (or slowdown, whaterver name it) has become high. With FED cutting interest rates by almost 125 basis points in a week shows the impact of damage the current credit crisis has caused to US Economy. Though the Indian economy has come to stand on strong domestic factors we cannot rule out the fact that a more pronounced correction in the US economy is likely to have a repercussion on Indian economy as well.

As per data on SEBI website FII's have pumped in around 17 billion USD dollars in 2007 alone. The net outflow in Jan' 08 stands around 3.5 billion US dollars. Any further impact on global slowdown can see FII's pull out more money from the markets. The probability of market touching the recent low at this stage looks very high. Investors are requested to watch the global trends and take a call before taking position in the markets.

2) The US Credit crisis at this stage seems to have come to a stand still. Is it safe to say at this time the correction in Indian markets have been bottomed out?

You are right in one way saying the credit crisis as reported by financial institutions have come to a standstill. But not to forget there are lot of loan defaulters in this subprime market, many of those have already filed bankurpcy. Secondly, the current credit crisis in housing market can also trigger defaults in the US Credit card market. Not to forget the US credit card market is around 950 Billion US Dollars of money in credit. At this stage it is very difficult to say if the Indian markets have bottomed out or not. But if you are a long term investor you need not worry about this short to medium term volatility.

3) Which stocks are looking good at this stage after the correction?

As we had recommended earlier Orchid Chemicals and Tata Steel looks good from 12 to 18 months horizon. Currently we have initiated coverage on SCI and ONGC (Recommendation Follows) with a 24 months horizon. Hotel Leelaventure looks strong with all the expansion turning EPS assertive in the coming years. Keep watching our blog for multibagger recommendation.

To conclude, there is a saying that anyone can make money in a bull market, Investors are one who ride the bear market. Our portfolio has delivered an average return of 19% as against the sensex negative return of -2% over the 4 months period (Since our blog Inception).

JK Lakshmi Cement - Accumulate

JK Lakshmi Cement currently operates 3.5 million tonnes per year of cement capacity. The company is a leading player in north-west India with a wide network of 1500 dealers and 60 cement dumps. The company premium brand includes JK Lakshmiplast and JK Lakshmi Ready Concrete Mix (RMC).

JK Lakshmi Cement is planing to set up a greenfield cement plant operating around 2-2.5 MTPA capacity with a investment of around 650 Crores in the next three years. This is expected to widen it's presence in the eastern and southern states of India.

Expansion Details

1) The company is currently increasing it's cement capacity from 3.5 MPTA to 5 MTPA. This is expected to be operation by October 2008.
2) The company currently operates 5 RMC plant and expects to add 7 RMC units this fiscal.
3) The firm recently commissioned fully it's 36MW captive power plant. This is expected to improve it's Operating margin from the current quarter.

Investor with medium risk profile can consider investment into this stock with a horizon of 2 years. At the current market price of Rs. 168/- the stock valuations appears to be discounted compared to it's mid-cap peers. The stock currently trades at less than 4 times it's trailing 12 month EPS of 45. We initiate a buy call in this stock with a target of Rs. 320/- on it's current valuation. With the complete expansion in place which the company is undertaking, we expect the stock to be a potential multibagger.

The current quarter Q3' 07 results were below our expectation and also we saw a steep decline in Operating margins. We expect the margins to improve with the commission of Captive power plant. The bottomline of the company is also set to increase with the restructuring of it's 325 crore debt.

Risk

1) Cement imported from Asian counterparts like china and Thailand have become cheaper after goverment scrapping import duty.
2) Domestic cement prises are in it's peak, Possible reversal.
3) High Interest expense due to higher Debt ratio.

Result Snapshot and Analysis Q3' 07 (Dec' 07)

Till Date: 13-Jan-08

Largecap/Midcap/Smallcap Results Analysis

Hits

1)
GM Breweries Q3 net profit up 86.02%

Snapshot:
Net sales up 10.57% y-o-y
Operating margin at 14.85% as compared to 9.99%
EPS for current quarter at Rs. 4.69

Summary:
At the current market price of 121.15 the stock trades at 7.3 times it's trailing 12 months EPS of 16.7.

2)
ABG Shipyard net up 60.81% in Dec`07 qtr

Snapshot:
Net sales up 53.83% y-o-y
Operating margin at 30.39% as compared to 30.12%
EPS for current quarter at Rs. 9.25

Summary:
At the current market price of 936 the stock trades at 28 times it's trailing 12 months EPS of 33.

3)
Prism Cement net up 28.67% for Dec`07 qtr

Snapshot:
Net sales up 20.05% y-o-y
Operating margin at 41.23% as compared to 45.36%
EPS for current quarter at Rs. 2.16

Summary:
At the current market price of 63.30 the stock trades at 8.11 times it's trailing 12 months EPS of 7.8.

4)
Axis Bank net up 66.20% for Dec`07 qtr

Snapshot:
Interest Income up 51.50% y-o-y
Profit margin at 17.02% as compared to 15.52%
EPS for current quarter at Rs. 9.09

Summary:
At the current market price of 1167 the stock trades at 39 times it's trailing 12 months EPS of 30.

5)
Rajesh Exports net soars 2.18 times in Dec`07 qtr

Snapshot:
Net sales up 10.41% y-o-y
Operating margin at 5.07% as compared to 2.16%
EPS for current quarter at Rs. 16.56

Summary:
At the current market price of 881 the stock trades at 16.62 times it's trailing 12 months EPS of 53.

6)
Infosys consolidated net up 25% for Dec`07 qtr

Snapshot:
Net sales up 15.78% y-o-y
Profit margin at 29.66% as compared to 27.74%
EPS for current quarter at Rs. 20.70

Summary:
At the current market price of 1580 the stock trades at 20.51 times it's trailing 12 months EPS of 77.

7)
Tata Metaliks swings to profit in Q3

Snapshot:
Net sales up 83.74% y-o-y
Operating margin at 11.98% as compared to 2.47%
EPS for current quarter at Rs. 6.27

Summary:
At the current market price of 187 the stock trades at 8 times it's trailing 12 months EPS of 23.5.

Other notable Hits released till now includes Jaiprakash Hydro, Jaiprakash Associates, Aban Offshore, Indian Bank, Motilal Oswal, IGate Technologies, Mastek, Steel Exchange, Ushdev and Sintex Industries.

Misses

1)
Celestial Labs net dips 45.55% for Dec`07 qtr

Snapshot:
Net sales down 26.21% q-o-q
Operating margin at 37.26% as compared to 51.17%
EPS for current quarter at Rs. 1.34

Summary:
At the current market price of 58 the stock trades at 11 times it's annualized Q3 EPS of 5.2.

2)
Bilpower net down 5.92% in Dec`07 qtr

Snapshot:
Net sales up 31.91% y-o-y
Operating margin at 11.32% as compared to 11.71%
EPS for current quarter at Rs. 7.36

Summary:
At the current market price of 297 the stock trades at 9.78 times it's trailing 12 months EPS of 30.36.

For Live Result Analysis visit the Market News page @ http://profitfrommarketnews.blogspot.com

Note :
The information above is just an update on the current quarter results. This information is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy any of the securities mentioned herein.Please perform your analysis before entering into these scripts.

Our Picks For the Year 2008

On the stocks which are already on our recommended list we feel Orchid Chemicals and Riddhi Siddhi Gluco Biols will emerge as clear winner in this new year.

On the large cap we like

ONGC (CMP Rs. 1236.50/-)

The stock currently trades at 12 times it's FY08E EPS of 105. At the current price the stock is an excellent value buy. Being an Oil Exploration company the high oil prices is set to benefit it's top line and bottom line growth. ONGC's aggressive gas discovery this year provides a positive outlook for re-rating in this counter.

On the Smallcap front our picks are

Shri Lakshmi Cotsyn Ltd (CMP Rs.197/-)

The stock currently trades at less than 6 times it's trailing 12 month EPS. With aggressive expansion plans and strong operating margins among textile stocks, the stock is a good value pick for the coming year.

Himalya International (CMP Rs. 27/-)

The stock currently trades at around 9 times it's trailing 12 month EPS. With growing domestic retail sector this food processing company is expected to see aggressive growth in both top line and bottom line earnings.

On the Midcap stocks we bet on

JK Lakshmi Cement (CMP Rs.198/-)

Coming soon...Watch out our blog for a detailed analysis on JK Lakshmi Cement

Wish you all a very happy and prosperous new year

Year 2007 has been yet another blockbuster year for the stock markets. The market saw a spectacular bull run for the fifth consecutive year.
The sensex this year was up by more than 45%. The broader indices (Midcap and Smallcap) this year posted exceptional returns outperforming the sensex returns.

Year 2008 can be challenging and as per analyst predictions can turn out to be a first bear market after 5 years of spectacular bull run. The questions remains whether the year forward can offset the global economy challenges and continue the bull market running streak.

The challenges that remain ahead in 2008 are

1) Impact due to US Credit Crisis.
2) Deteriorating Consumer Spending in developed economies.
3) Rising cost of commodities and crude oil.

Domestic challenges include

1) High crude oil prices which Indian markets has still not taken into consideration.
2) Continuing Rupee Appreciation.
3) High raw material prices.

Although major challenges are attributed towards developed economy like US, Europe and Japan, we cannot rule out the fact the correction in the developed economy is likely to have a repercussion on the rest of the world. Albeit the fact that the Indian economy has come to stand on stronger structural pillars, the growth trajectory is still highly dependent on the developed economy.

In the upcoming year inspite of the economical challenges we are positive on select pharma stocks, Infrastructure and Energy Sector, Select Automobile counter. We caution our subscriber and readers to take a conservative call on Textile and select metal stocks. We are expecting some revival in International Sugar prices and recommend a wait, watch and pick strategy on this counter. We see a consolidation phase in IT arena with more M&A, at the sametime expect this sector to underperform the broader indices.

Coming soon... Watch out our blog for top picks of the year 2008.

Our performance

As of today our blog completed four months, thanks to the continuing support of our subscribers and readers. Our subscriber feedback has been the main driver in Improving the content of our blog.

All of our recommended stocks have ended this year on a positive note. Neyveli Lignite (241%), Alok Textiles (64%), Chennai Petro (51%), Hotel Leela (46%), Dish TV (41%), Orchid Chemical (33%) and TNPL (27%) have been the star performers.

With this we wish you once again a very happy and prosperous new year and like to start the new year with the quote of Warren Buffet, the greatest investor of the era,
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1"

Warm Wishes,
Srivatsan Srinivasan

Best Tax Saving Mutual Fund (ELSS)

With the Indian financial year around the corner, Tax planing is one activity which comes on everyone's mind. In this article we will cover one of the tax saving instrument, Equity Linked Saving Schemes (ELSS).

Equity Linked Saving Schemes are mutual funds that invest in the stock market and also give tax benefit under Section 80C. Apart from tax benefits these mutual funds have exploited the rally in equity markets very well.

For three years ended Nov'07 most of the top funds in this category have given an average yearly return of around 60%.

Funds like SBI Magnum tax gain, Principal personal tax saver fund, Sundaram BNP Paribas Tax Saver have generated sensation returns of more than 130% per annum during the last 5 years. Not to say most of this is attributed to the exceptional Bull run of the Indian Stock Market.

With the Global economy showing a steep slowdown, the question remains can these mutual funds continue the sensational returns. Below are out top ELSS mutual funds picks which we feel will continue to beat the Index return.

The parameters we have considered in evaluating these mutual funds are

1) Past performance for the last 5 years.
2) Funds Sectoral concentration.
3) Portfolio and Fund management dynamics.

1) SBI Magnum Tax Gain Scheme

NAV: 67.57 (Dividend), 67.62 (Growth)

Absolute Return

Duration Return (%)
2007....... 54
3 year..... 343.8
5 year..... 1,475.9

Top Investment Sectors - Engineering, Banking/Finance, Oil & Gas, Cement, Metal & Mining
Asset Allocation - Equity (87%), Debt (1.32%), Cash (11.15%)

2) Sundaram BNP Paribas Tax Saver

NAV: 21.77 (Dividend), 45.76 (Growth)

Absolute Return

Duration Return (%)
2007...... 65.2
3 year.... 251.3
5 year.... 939.9

Top Investment Sectors - Banking/Finance, Engineering, Metal & Mining, Oil & Gas, Cement
Asset Allocation - Equity (96.30%), Cash (3.70%)

3) Principal Personal Tax Saver Fund

NAV: 213.88

Absolute Return

Duration Return (%)
2007...... 81.8
3 year.... 237.3
5 year.... 674.6

Top Investment Sectors - Engineering, Metals & Mining, Oil & Gas, Banking/Finance, Conglomerates
Asset Allocation - Equity (93.47%), Cash (6.53%)

The returns in the above mutual fund are subject to market performance. These are high risk instrument as entire asset is allocated to equities.
Individuals with Low risk and moderate return can Invest in the below ELSS mutual fund. The fund has an excellent track record and is one of the few funds to withstand the 2000 market crash.

Templeton India Pension Plan

NAV: 18.02

Absolute Return

Duration Return (%)
2007....... 25
3 year..... 74
5 year..... 176.9

Top Investment Sectors - Banking/Finance, Engineering, Conglomerates, Oil & Gas, Telecom
Asset Allocation - Equity (40.59%), Debt (51.73%), Cash (7.68%)

The above stock (Templeton India Pension Plan) has a lock in period of 3 years and a Exit load of 3% if redeemed before the age of 58 years.
This fund can also be considered as an additional pension plan if vested till the age of 58. Consider for a person with average age of 30, Investing Rs. 10,000/- per year for 20 years (Rs. 2 Lakhs), with a average return of 12% per annum can yield you around Rs. 20 Lakhs at the terminal year of the policy.

For Individuals who have already exhausted their tax eligibility, watch out this page for multibagger stock recommendation.

Tata Steel - A fundamental play

Tata Steel is one of the lowest cost and most cost-efficient steel producing companies in the world.

After a series of acquisition, Tata steel this year acquired 100% shares of corus group, a 21 million tonne capacity steel producer with plants in UK and netherland. The acquisition of Corus has transformed Tata Steel from a domestic steel producer to an international steel company with global scale.

Even though the acquisition was a very high bid compared to it's initial offer the company seems to be doing things in the right manner. Raw material security is a significant imperative for the long-term sustainability of Steel company success. Tata Steel is actively exploring operations in resource-rich countries for iron ore and coal, as also seeking fresh leases for iron ore and coal at various locations in India. On this path tata recently entered in to JV with riversdale.

The company main challenges ahead is the integration of corus. Currently the combined entity Operating margin is around 13% in compared to it's standalone Operating margin of around 40%. The key is to improve the combined entity Operating margin to atleast around 28%.

Other risks we foresee in the medium term are

1) High debt instrument incurred on account of corus acquisition together with corus existing debts in place.
2) Increase in equity capital to fund the acquisition.
3) Commodities prices including steel has shot up enormously in the past few years. With the world economy seeing a recession the prices of commodity is expected to fall drastically.
4) Demand-Supply in steel seen neutral due to huge steel capacity expansion seen in china.
5) Raw material security has reduced to 17% from 80% with corus acquisition.

At the current market price of Rs. 833/- the stock trades at around 12 times it's fully diluted FY08E EPS of Rs. 68. We are not seeing any exceptional rise in the bottom line current year and at this price the stock seem to have a over run up. We expect the stock to correct and stabilize around Rs. 680/- in the medium term (6-8 months). At around Rs. 680/- we initiate a buy call on Tata Steel with a horizon of 3 years for investor with medium to high risk profile. The stock can turn on to be a potential multi bagger for long term investors.

Expansion Details

1) Tata Steel had initiated steps to establish three green field steel plants with captive iron ore mines in Orissa, Chattisgarh and Jharkhand, which would add an additional capacity of 23 million tonnes. In addition the company is planing to increase these capacities to 56 mpta by 2015.
2) The expansion project in it's Jamshedpur works to produce 6.8 mtpa is expected to complete by June 2008.
3) The company is subsequently increasing it's Jamshedpur crude steel production to 9.7 mtpa by FY2010.
4) The company is setting up a coke (main raw material for steel) making facility, with a production capacity of 1.6 mtpa. The production is expected to commence in 2008.

Other expansion details are not covered as part of our current analysis.

Positives

1) Tata Steel branded products Tata Pipes, Tata wiron, Tata Shaktee, Tata Tiscon, Tata structura, Tata bearings, Tata agrico to add exponentially to it's topline and bottom line growth.
2) Domestic steel demand to fuel up companies topline.
3) Tata Steel is the preferred supplier of steel to major auto manufactures including Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, Ford etc.
4) By 2015, the company plans to increase it's steel production capacity to 50 mpta which is around 8 times it's capacity on a standalone basis.