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Thursday, August 7, 2008

A Question of Answers - Mail replies

I am holding SAIL at Rs. 230/- and Gujarat Ambuja Cement at Rs. 118/-. Do you see any recovery in short term?

With cooling commodity prices, I would stay away from metal stocks in the current market. Cement inspite of predicted decrease in Infrastructure growth looks positive.
Investors can take fresh long position in sugar stocks with surging sugar prices. Stocks like Sakthi Sugars and Triveni Engineering looks good.
With falling prices of zinc and lead one can look for fresh investments in battery manufactures like Eveready and Amara Raja.

Are you taking any fresh look into your earlier recommended stocks?

Yes. We are positive on Tamil Nadu Newsprint Limited (TNPL), JK Lakshmi Cement, Rallis India and Orchid Chemicals from our earlier recommendation.

With Neyveli Lignite almost available in half the price from it's peak is it advisable to take a fresh position into this stock?

New power additions are not progressing satisfactorily. Also the current quarter results are way below expectation. Will wait and watch for couple of more quarters.

I have brought Alembic at Rs. 42/-. Is it a worth hold for long term?

Seems to me yes. Pharma sector looks to be a good bet in the current market. Alembic looks good with strong presence in domestic market. We are also positive on Orchid Chemicals and Novartis India.

I have huge position in textile stocks like Arvind mills and Alok Industries? Can I book losses or hold it?

I am not sure about Arvind mills. Alok seems to me a good bet from a longer term. I think government control on curbing cotton exports is set to benefit domestic textile firms.

Can I buy Teledata Informatics, Phoenix Mills at current level?

Sorry I am not tracking both of these companies.

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Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental Analysis is the cornerstone of Investing. In fact, some would say that you aren't really investing if you aren't performing fundamental analysis.

During fundamental analysis we look at a stock from three aspects

Company

At the company level, fundamental analysis may involve examination of financial data, management, business concept and competition.

Industry

At the industry level, there might be an examination of supply and demand forces for the products offered.

Economy

Fundamental analysis might focus on economic data to assess the present and future growth of the economy.

To forecast future stock prices, fundamental analysis combines economic, industry, and company analysis to derive a stock's current fair value and forecast future value. If fair value is not equal to the current stock price, fundamental analysts believe that the stock is either over or under valued and the market price will ultimately gravitate towards fair value. Fundamentalists do not heed the advice of the random walkers and believe that markets are weak-form efficient.